You Can Zone a Suburb. You Cannot Zone Demand.
You can zone a suburb. You cannot zone demand. Run developers down all you like, they follow the money, and the money follows the buyers.
Christchurch CBD built 484 homes. Its population grew by 50.
People go where they want to live, not where a council decides they should live.
The Press reported it in May. At the old St Luke’s site, 25 new townhouses, and residents say four of them appear to be lived in. A city councillor calls whole blocks of the centre a “ghost town”.
Nobody broke any rules. The homes were consented and built. Buyers just wanted something else. Airbnb works for investors.
Auckland has the other version of the same problem. Where the plan says build, the numbers struggle. Three or four units on a small site. Charges up front. Public upgrades to pay for on top of other growth charges. Rules reinterpreted mid consent. Neighbours who are, quite reasonably, worried. PC120 may open up prime suburbs, but sites too small to carry the costs will knock a lot of projects out.
Infill in Auckland is a major risk for small developers. Feasibility crashes at a sneeze.
And where developers do follow the market, the council often says no. One fast-track developer offered to help pay for the water upgrades. It says it got no reply. Auckland Council’s own planning document then proposed resisting growth it does not want by, among other things, “rejecting private infrastructure solutions”.
Watching businesses will not argue with that. They leave. Or hold onto their land. The capital walks too, more quietly. It goes where the houses sell.
More crystal ball gazing will not fix this. Reading the market will. Councils are not built for that. Developers are. They are the ones selling.
Buyers set the direction. Public servants should serve it.
Who is doing that well? I would like to know.
